Yeah these are basically the two future scenarios we can look forward to. Given how things are going in Ukraine and Iran, it doesn’t look like the empire is really going to be able to stamp out alternatives at this point. A very likely scenario that the west will become isolationist and start doing these things internally, but the rest of the world cuts them off.
Regarding the whole singularity idea, I don’t think it’s a given even if AIs can self improve. There’s no guarantee that a cognitive system can just scale indefinitely. We’re already seeing this playing out with LLMs where people originally thought that you could just keep making them bigger, but things starts to fall apart after a certain size. And feeding more data into them or making the network bigger doesn’t produce positive results.
And I can’t really see how the west can pull ahead of China in this tech given that China has a much bigger talent pool, and most AI research being published is coming from China.
Tbf so far every wall that was being approached in scalability has been overcome, and that’s one of the main reasons I think China has a massive advantage because they’ve been the primarily innovators in that regard; they have less compute to work with so they focus more on creating ingenious architecture solutions to these problems.
Yeah these are basically the two future scenarios we can look forward to. Given how things are going in Ukraine and Iran, it doesn’t look like the empire is really going to be able to stamp out alternatives at this point. A very likely scenario that the west will become isolationist and start doing these things internally, but the rest of the world cuts them off.
Regarding the whole singularity idea, I don’t think it’s a given even if AIs can self improve. There’s no guarantee that a cognitive system can just scale indefinitely. We’re already seeing this playing out with LLMs where people originally thought that you could just keep making them bigger, but things starts to fall apart after a certain size. And feeding more data into them or making the network bigger doesn’t produce positive results.
And I can’t really see how the west can pull ahead of China in this tech given that China has a much bigger talent pool, and most AI research being published is coming from China.
Tbf so far every wall that was being approached in scalability has been overcome, and that’s one of the main reasons I think China has a massive advantage because they’ve been the primarily innovators in that regard; they have less compute to work with so they focus more on creating ingenious architecture solutions to these problems.